EURUSD is Likely Heading Higher

It’s been awhile since I’ve had time to post any of my trade analysis. And I don’t plan to make a regular habit of “being back”, but I really like the setup in EURUSD right now. I thought I’d share.

A New Trend Emerging for EURUSD?

In late April, EURUSD pushed above its 200-day moving average. This is always a reason to start looking more closely at any pair. But what made the move even more interesting was that it retested the 200-day SMA on May 11th and found support against that level. The pair then moved higher: (more…)

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USDJPY Is Likely Headed Lower

The other week I wrote a post in which I laid out some reasoning for why I believed we’d be seeing some consolidation in the markets. Specifically, I looked at USDJPY, saying:

“Every time USDJPY has dipped below the 50-hour SMA since the election results, we’ve seen some extended consolidation. I’ve marked these three instances with blue rectangular boxes.

The first one lasted about four days, the second was a full seven days, and the last was just two days. We’re now trading below the 50-hour SMA once again, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another period of consolidation.”

That post was nine days ago, and with Christmas behind us we’re starting to see at least some movement. Here’s what I’m observing in USDJPY now and why I’ve been selling the pair. (more…)

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EURGBP… That Didn’t Take Long

Just two days ago I wrote an update about EURGBP and why I believed the bullish case was building. I closed that post with some thoughts on what I want to see next to confirm that this bull is leaving the station. Here’s what I said:

“But there are a couple things I’ll be keeping an eye out for to further confirm my bullish bias.

The first is a cross over of the 50 and 100-bar SMA’s. As you can see, the 50-bar SMA hasn’t been trading above the 100-bar in quite awhile. The next would be the 50-bar SMA crossing the 200. Finally, we’d like to see both the 50 and 100-bar SMA’s cross the 200-bar SMA.”

As a refresher, here’s a look at the 4-hour chart at that time: (more…)

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The Bullish Case Builds for EURGBP

Last week I wrote about EURGBP, saying it’s now time to buy the pair. When I published that article, it was trading at 0.8380; it’s currently trading at 0.8442… about 60 pips higher.

Sixty pips is pretty solid, especially considering EURGBP’s pip value is worth more than most pairs. One standard lot yields ~$12 per pip compared to $10 per pip for something like EURUSD.

But in that article I was looking mostly at the daily and weekly charts. Today I’m drilling down to some lower timeframe charts to show you how this trade is developing and why I’m feeling increasingly bullish. (more…)

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GBPJPY: An Early Warning Sign?

Not long after the open this week I became a bit weary of the strong rallies we’ve been seeing in certain pairs. USDJPY and other Yen pairs like GBPJPY have been on impressive runs since the US Presidential election. With the Fed rate hike out of the way, I’m really starting to watch closely for signs that these moves are fizzling out.

And I think we’re seeing some of those potential signs in GBPJPY. Let’s dig in to the charts and see what’s going on. (more…)

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What’s Next for the USD?

The US Dollar has been on an absolute tear lately. This is great as it has presented some extremely strong trends to trade. This is one of the reasons why our forex signal has been performing so well. We’re up a whopping 39% this month after gaining 23% in November.

Our forex signal account has been going gangbusters!

In fact, this signal was launched 30 days ago tomorrow, which means we’re up 72% in a month’s time. That’s insane, and not sustainable. I’m writing this post to take a step back and think through my thoughts on what the next couple weeks may bring for the forex markets. (more…)

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It’s Time to Buy EURGBP

I’ve been watching EURGBP for literally weeks as the pair has been going through a major correction after a huge move higher. I’ve seen a lot of chatter on StockTwits and forex forums about buying the pair at a “discount”. This chatter has been going on for weeks, and I’m sure these folks are either deeply in the red or stopped out by now.

The other week I finally pulled the trigger on buying this pair. That doesn’t mean much; I often take positions to help me monitor them, starting with a small buy or sell and seeing how things react. But today I added another buy, so let’s take a look at why. (more…)

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Cautiously Bearish GBPJPY: Here’s Why

I hate trying to pick tops and bottoms. Most of the time it’s pretty unprofitable. But it’s those rare times that it is profitable that make it so tempting. That said, when I am attempting to pick a top or bottom I try to be mentally aware of what I’m doing: trading against the trend.

This is one of those times.

It takes discipline and the ability to admit that your timing may be off. Right now I’m attempting to pick a top, either short-term or long-term, in GBPJPY. But I’m doing so with caution. Let’s dig into why I think we might be in for a pullback. (more…)

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