Bitcoin on steroids

Last night I registered for an account with Bitmex, a trading platform that lets you trade bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on margin.

I’ve seen the company talked about a lot, but never gave it a shot because I live in the US and they aren’t able to serve US accounts. But a quick subscription to Nord VPN solved that in a jiffy.

I deposited a small amount of bitcoin late last night, and within two trades I’ve almost tripled my account. That’s nuts!

So how did I do it?

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Time to get defensive?

I didn’t talk about it here on the blog but last Friday I moved Mrs. Geppy’s and my 401(k) allocation from 100% equities to 80% bonds/20% equities. Most of the time a move like this will be a mistake, because timing the market is tough business.

But the selloff we experienced early in the month felt a bit different. And let’s be honest, it’s been a ridiculously easy ride with so little volatility. Maybe we’re due for a real correction.

When I look at the S&P 500 (SPY) from the 4-hour chart, we seem to be struggling to break back above the 50-bar SMA:

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Why shorten the EURUSD?!?!

Equity markets are closed today, making it a bit slow out there. But these are the best days to catch up on your reading. I received this email the other day from a reader that clearly doesn’t actually read the blog:

And yes, he said “shorten” the Euro…

I get emails like this from time to time, and they used to get to me. Now they just make me laugh.

His Twitter feed made me laugh even more. I pity our friend Tibor. (more…)

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Twitter brought me back with a Euro update

I just took profit on my EURUSD shorts I put on yesterday. I was short from 1.2490 and took profit at 1.2407 — so the risk/reward wasn’t great here on paper. That said, and as detailed in yesterday’s post, I liked the risk/reward based on the technical factors I was seeing.

I’m happy taking profits here for two reasons: one, it’s Friday; two, we’re pretty darn close to the trend line support on the 1-hour time frame.

I’d like to see how price reacts around these levels before plotting my next move. Most likely though I’ll continue look for smaller trades like the one we just took. I’m happy scalping 50-100 pips until the longer term technical picture becomes more clear. (more…)

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Messy markets

We’ve gotten some good snow here in metro Detroit. Here’s the view out one of my office windows:

We’re not incredibly prepared for the snow. We can’t get our cars in the garage because all the junk we’ve removed from renovating the house is piled up in there. We’re ordering a dumpster next week to get rid of it all and keep the cars warm.

I haven’t been doing much in the markets. I’m fully out of my EURUSD longs. I didn’t make any money on the trade really. The charts are a complete mess and I’m starting to look more at GBPUSD. (more…)

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Back in Michigan

I haven’t had the time to write for a few days. We’re back home in Michigan, but the flight back was exhausting. Little Geppy was a champ, and extremely well behaved on the flight to Los Angeles, but he was a terror on the way home. Ugh, not fun!

Mrs. Geppy and I have hit the ground running here back at home. I tore out a closet in our foyer where we plan to put a bench with shoe cubbies below, along with hooks for coats, etc. I started laying a bunch of flooring last night and she’s been busy painting my office.

I’ve been pretty hands off with the markets. I did pare my EURUSD longs back about 70% on Wednesday near 1.1800. That was my break even, and with the charts looking messy, I didn’t feel as strongly about my position. So I reduced it. (more…)

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Taxes, and crypto, and kittens, oh my!

I’m still in SoCal, but very ready to get home. We head back tomorrow.

My cough is gone, and I’ve managed to get some stuff for work done. There hasn’t been much going on in the FX markets. The response to Trump’s tax plan has been muted both on the USD front and equities.

I’m not surprised.

It’s the ol’ buy the rumor sell the news.

What’s up with EURUSD?

The short answer: not much. (more…)

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SoCal Singtao sippin’

I couldn’t sleep last night due to this cough I just can’t shake. I think it was around 1am that I finally crashed, but we were up at 5am to head to the airport by 5:30am.

I’m in SoCal now and the first thing I did once little Geppy finally went down for a nap…

Yep, the in-laws have a sick backyard. After a couple cold ones I managed to zonk out for a 2-hour nap. Better than Robitussin! (more…)

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