Forex Daily Roundup – 9/8/2016

Today was probably the most interesting day of the week. We had something to capture the attention of traders via the ECB rate decision and Draghi’s press conference. Then we had some whipsaw action with the USD. Sadly though, our trade tracker is looking as pathetic as ever:

screenshot-2016-09-08-12-58-40

Things are extremely mixed in terms of the different trends on different time frames. That results in few opportunities according to the bottom half of our tool. But if we dig in a bit, there’s still trades to be made from a technical perspective:

EUR/USD

The Euro made a cute effort to go higher today after the ECB rate announcement, but it was slapped back down in US trading. As a result, we find ourself right back at the ~1.1250 area I’ve been pointing out for awhile now:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-09-55

I see a lot of folks getting excited about movement in the Euro. These people must have very boring lives, because this pair just isn’t at all interesting right now. But we do have the 50 and 200-bar SMA’s not far below, and both are starting to curl higher.

Could the pair actually break higher and make a run for 1.1350/1.1400? It’s possible, but I won’t be trying to trade it. Even though it seems like there are no opportunities out there right now, there are much better shots than the Euro.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD does not present such opportunities, unfortunately. Although the pair managed to put in more gains today, there’s some clear resistance ahead in the form of SMA’s and the 1.3000 level:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-13-47

Now this range might be a scalper’s dream come true, but we tend to be trend and divergence traders here at FMM, so there’s not a lot that’s interesting in this pair right now. We’re still on the sidelines.

AUD/USD

The Aussie made new highs today, but it didn’t last long. The pair finished with a fat, red candle and a clear rejection by the upper bound of the long term consolidation pattern:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-15-54

But I’m watching the 4-hour chart now:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-17-51

The SMA’s are not far below current price and all of them are starting to point higher. If we can get a purely aligned SMA situation, that’s make the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour all bullish. And that might mean it’s time to take a shot at longs. I’m definitely keeping my eye on this pair, but I’d like to see it come down a bit more and stabilize first.

USD/JPY

The pair moved substantially higher today after the 100-bar SMA on the 4-hour chart proved to be valid support:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-20-42

The key for further upside is trading back above the 50-bar SMA. I really believe we’re going to see USD/JPY move higher, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it test resistance in the next blue boxed region on the daily:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-26-49

That said, right now I prefer getting Yen exposure via GBP/JPY because the picture there is a bit more clear (more on that soon).

GBP/USD

Sterling got pretty beat up today, that said I still like the idea of longs based on the 4-hour chart:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-29-56

All SMA’s are purely aligned and not far below current prices. The magenta trend line should offer some support, and below that we have trend channel support too. So I may be looking for longs here depending on how price reacts if we head a bit lower. But much like USD/JPY I’m leaning more toward getting my GBP exposure via GBP/JPY or even EUR/GBP which is a pair I’ve been covering exclusively in our Patreon group.

GBP/JPY

Geppy was the most interesting pair to watch and trade today, in my opinion. In fact, after trading in a tight range for more than 28 hours (seven 4-hour bars), the next 4-hour bar managed to made new lows and then close at new highs above the range:

screenshot-2016-09-08-13-34-59

That capitulation lower seemed like a pretty obvious wash out of weak longs to me, and it didn’t shake me out of my trade. I’ve been bullish GBP/JPY and waiting for the 100-bar SMA to cross the 200-bar. We got that today. In fact, as GBP/JPY started reversing off those lows I tweeted this:

We ended up closing the day some 40 pips higher, and I have a feeling this is just the beginning. Our Patreon crew is long and holding for higher, much higher (we hope)! Join us if you’d like to be part of a group of awesome, supportive, and smart traders.

Within our Patreon group I’m also stalking potential trades in EUR/GBP and NZD/USD, two pairs I’m starting to see fresh opportunities in but don’t have the capacity to be blogging about each day. And as always, today’s roundup is my last until Sunday. Real-time updates continue through tomorrow on Patreon though. So for those that are members, see you there!

Geppy

I've been involved in the forex markets for over a decade, initially starting as an FX trader at Allston Trading in Chicago. Eventually I went on and founded my own (non trading related) company. I spend my days working from home and trading forex, equity, and crypto markets.

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