I’m feeling better today. Still battling a cough that won’t go away, but feeling better on the whole. So no, I’m not the one puking… Netflix is.
The stock finished down some 5.5% today. Do I feel lucky that I closed my short put position yesterday? Damn straight I do!
I would have sold $185 puts today had I had margin to do so. Take a look at the chart:
That’s a pretty solid trend channel if I’ve ever seen one. The 100-day SMA comes in right around those levels too. So I have a hard time seeing it fall below there without at least pausing a bit. Tech is getting gutted today while bitcoin continues to rollercoaster around. It will be interesting to see what happens with bitcoin when the CME starts trading futures contracts. I’ve been talking a lot about this privately but I hope to find some time to write a bit about that soon.
Is EURUSD finding a bottom?
In short, I believe so. You could have easily gotten all wrapped up in the noise today. The noise, noise, Noise, NOISE! Sorry, too much reading of How The Grinch Stole Christmas lately to little Geppy.
If you aren’t focused on the overall trend it’s tough to eliminate the noise. And the noise is everywhere. In the price action, in our heads, our emotions, on Twitter, on forums. It’s hard to ignore, but I’m getting better at it.
The Euro dipped to a low of 1.1817 today, below yesterday’s low. But here’s the rub: we closed above yesterday’s close. Cashing in my $NFLX short puts for 85% of the premium and rolling the margin into EURUSD longs at 1.1845 is looking like a genius move.
It wasn’t. It’s mostly luck.
Tomorrow it will probably look moronic. Who knows.
Here’s the latest look at the 4-hour chart:
Now tell me that’s not starting to look mighty delicious!
It’s going to be interesting to see how we finish out the week.