Short Lived Shorts

Mrs. Geppy and I are doing some major renovation work on our new house. Most of it we’re doing ourselves, and it’s a learning process! But I’m mostly enjoying it.

Our new kitchen went in the other week and our countertops were installed a couple days ago. Now that they had a couple days to set we were able to connect or appliances again.


As I was perusing the aisles of Home Depot, looking for some parts to redo the plumbing for our kitchen sink and garbage disposal, EURUSD started spiking pretty hard.

I stood there, trap, plumber’s putty, and other accouterments in hand and flipped from short to long. That’s the second time in two weeks I’ve flipped my position. (more…)

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Flooring like a trader

I laid more bamboo flooring last night. I like to put my headphones in, play some tunes, and just crank. Before I know it, it’s 11:00pm and I’ve got another room done. I started just laying one row at a time, running to the garage to make the cuts, put them in place, and picking boards for the next row. Then I was picking out multiple boards at a time, laying them out, cutting, and laying two rows simultaneously. Just like anything, it’s about finding a rhythm, looking for small efficiencies, and improving along the way.

I’ve been in a pretty good rhythm with my trading lately. I’ll share more stats at the end of the month, but it’s been a good one already. I’m hoping it only gets better. (more…)

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Long Kitchens and EURUSD

Our kitchen countertops went in today. Mrs. Geppy and I have been renovating our new home room by room. Much of the work we’ve done ourselves like the bamboo flooring, baseboards and trim, literally demolishing and rebuilding our stairs, painting, and remodeling a bathroom. When I type it out it doesn’t seem like much, but we’re two months into the process now and might have as much as two more! I’ll share some photos once we get closer to the finish line.

The entire process has been tough but rewarding. Mentally, we’re both ready to be done and not working on the house until midnight every night. But I’m learning a ton in the process and I have a bunch of tools now. The knowledge gain is worth the headaches.

I had a target of 1.1700 in for my EURUSD longs. I was pretty happy to see it was hit while I was sleeping. There’s nothing quite like waking up to a target profit close out. But as the pair traded some 100 pips higher it’s hard not to feel a bit disappointed at the money left on the table.  (more…)

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Back on ForexFactory… Kinda

Awhile back I was moved to a “commercial member” by the team at ForexFactory. I really wasn’t promoting anything there, but I did get into a pretty public spat with a scammer. As is always the case, this particular scammer had his fanboys that demanded I be moved to the commercial section of the forums.

The FF team gave in and I recently petitioned them to put me back as a standard member. After some back-and-forth, they finally did. So I’m back on ForexFactory, but not sure how much I’ll be posting there. I’ve hung around the last few days and I really don’t see a ton of value there for me. Most folks on the forums are trying to day trade a handful of pips. That’s not my style. And it seems the more I read there the more it pollutes my own clear thinking.

I’d much rather blog.

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EURUSD has been like watching paint dry

Last week I was short EURUSD until I wasn’t. I flipped my position, taking a slight profit, and made some good money (on paper) being long. I decided to hold through the weekend. But it’s been a pretty lame start to the week.

Don’t get me wrong, the overall trend right now on the daily and 4-hour charts is bearish. But the 15-minute and 1-hour charts are both currently bullish with their SMA’s purely aligned to the top side:


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EURUSD is Likely Heading Higher

It’s been awhile since I’ve had time to post any of my trade analysis. And I don’t plan to make a regular habit of “being back”, but I really like the setup in EURUSD right now. I thought I’d share.

A New Trend Emerging for EURUSD?

In late April, EURUSD pushed above its 200-day moving average. This is always a reason to start looking more closely at any pair. But what made the move even more interesting was that it retested the 200-day SMA on May 11th and found support against that level. The pair then moved higher: (more…)

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USDJPY Is Likely Headed Lower

The other week I wrote a post in which I laid out some reasoning for why I believed we’d be seeing some consolidation in the markets. Specifically, I looked at USDJPY, saying:

“Every time USDJPY has dipped below the 50-hour SMA since the election results, we’ve seen some extended consolidation. I’ve marked these three instances with blue rectangular boxes.

The first one lasted about four days, the second was a full seven days, and the last was just two days. We’re now trading below the 50-hour SMA once again, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another period of consolidation.”

That post was nine days ago, and with Christmas behind us we’re starting to see at least some movement. Here’s what I’m observing in USDJPY now and why I’ve been selling the pair. (more…)

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EURGBP… That Didn’t Take Long

Just two days ago I wrote an update about EURGBP and why I believed the bullish case was building. I closed that post with some thoughts on what I want to see next to confirm that this bull is leaving the station. Here’s what I said:

“But there are a couple things I’ll be keeping an eye out for to further confirm my bullish bias.

The first is a cross over of the 50 and 100-bar SMA’s. As you can see, the 50-bar SMA hasn’t been trading above the 100-bar in quite awhile. The next would be the 50-bar SMA crossing the 200. Finally, we’d like to see both the 50 and 100-bar SMA’s cross the 200-bar SMA.”

As a refresher, here’s a look at the 4-hour chart at that time: (more…)

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The Bullish Case Builds for EURGBP

Last week I wrote about EURGBP, saying it’s now time to buy the pair. When I published that article, it was trading at 0.8380; it’s currently trading at 0.8442… about 60 pips higher.

Sixty pips is pretty solid, especially considering EURGBP’s pip value is worth more than most pairs. One standard lot yields ~$12 per pip compared to $10 per pip for something like EURUSD.

But in that article I was looking mostly at the daily and weekly charts. Today I’m drilling down to some lower timeframe charts to show you how this trade is developing and why I’m feeling increasingly bullish. (more…)

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