Forex Trade of the Week: GBPUSD Ready to Fall

I’ve been kicking around the idea of a new idea for the blog: one trade I pick to start the week and see how it turns out by the end of the week. The trade of the week would assume a position was opened at the start of the trading week and closed at the end of the week.

I likely won’t post a trade every week, but I’ll post when I can. And I’ll start tracking the performance of these weekly picks too. So let’s start our first trade of the week with GBPUSD!

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Forex Signal Service Starting From Scratch

Last week I quietly launched a forex signal service with the ability for traders to auto copy my trades via SignalStart. I chose to start with a very small account, just $400, to prove a point to a friend that I’m attempting to mentor. That point is that you can start with a tiny amount of money and build it into something substantial. I named the signal “To The Moon” to symbolize that endeavor.

And the first week I traded was phenomenal. I returned some 20%. That’s nuts! But then everything went to hell this week, and I want to take a step back to address why I believe things have gone so poorly as of late. (more…)

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GBPUSD At An Inflection Point

Every strong trend is eventually broken, or at least takes a breather. It’s important to recognize when this transition is taking place in order to be able to respond accordingly. If not, it’s a classic example of not being able to see the forest over the trees. Getting caught committing too heavily to a trade in either direction when a pair is in transition can result in multiple strings of loses. Nobody wants that!

So what does a transitioning trend look like? The other day I talked about GBPUSD and how the higher timeframes were in obvious downtrends. But what I didn’t mention too much was the lower timeframes and how those are actually showing potential uptrends. This is a classic example of a trend that is now in transition, and the biggest tip off to this is often our trend and trade tracker tool. Here’s what it was showing yesterday:

Yesterday the weekly and daily timeframes were both in downtrends, yielding a sell signal on the daily chart. But the hourly and 15-minute timeframes were in uptrends, yielding a buy signal on the 15-minute chart. (more…)

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Trade Idea: Is the GBPUSD Rally Done?

I’ve been slowly getting back to blogging. I don’t know how regular it’ll be, but I’ll pop in when I can with a thought or two. Right now, I’m seeing some interesting clues in GBP/USD that make me think it might be time to sell.

A look at the daily chart

The daily chart is clearly in a downtrend. Notice how the SMA’s are all purely aligned to the downside. This is an obvious downtrend as discussed in my Ultimate Guide to Forex Trends.

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An obvious downtrend in GBPUSD

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Forex Trend Trading: The Ultimate Guide to Determining Trends

One of the most popular posts on this blog is this one on how to identify a forex trend. And while it’s a great overview, I always knew I wanted to do more of a deep dive into how I really think about forex trend trading.

That post generates a lot of questions on forex trend trading, and specifically how to properly identify forex trends. On the surface, this question seems simple. In fact, it seems almost obvious. Currency pairs trade in only three directions: Up, down, or sideways, right?

While that’s true, it can get much more complicated than that. How do you know an uptrend is really an uptrend? What actually defines a sideways trend? In essence, what makes a forex trend a specific trend? (more…)

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Why I Just Converted My Entire Trading Account into Yen

Since I live in the United States, I generally transact in USD. So when I withdraw money from my forex account it’s always in USD. But if I think a currency is going to appreciate against the USD, why should I hold my trading account in US dollars? Why not try to boost my forex returns by holding a currency that’s not my base currency?

That’s what I’ve been asking myself lately, and I’ve just now taken action.

Today I moved my entire trading account from USD to Yen in an effort to boost forex returns on top of my normal trading. This is something I’ve been considering doing for awhile, but haven’t pulled the trigger on. If you’ve got a long term view on a currency pair, why not convert your trading capital into that currency while you trade?

Well, there are a couple reasons why you may not want to do this. But there are good reasons for doing it too. In this post I’m going to dive into why I chose Yen and what it could potentially mean for my returns. (more…)

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Forex Trading Weekly Outlook – 9/25/2016

After last week’s trifecta of central bank rate statements from the BoJ, Fed, and RBNZ, I’m looking forward to a week with some decent data coming out but not much in terms of huge events. Hopefully we can start seeing some real trends taking hold. Looking at our trade tracker it doesn’t seem like there’s much going on right now:

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But that’s actually quite deceiving. There are a ton of trade opportunities in the market right now, and our Patreon group has been doing quite well. Going forward I will only be publishing a weekly outlook along with a mid-week update on Wednesdays as long as I have the bandwidth for it. I’m still trying to find the right balance between my family life, my business, my personal life, and sharing as much of my trading with you all.

That said, I am constantly updating our Patreon group throughout the week. We’re even launching a model account via MyFxBook starting in October with a $20,000 model account (more on that at the end of the post). The idea is to allow our Patreon members to see our trades in real-time even if I’m not around.

But enough of that, let’s focus on what’s going on in each of our six pairs: (more…)

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Forex Trading Weekly Outlook – 9/18/2016

Next week is going to be a doozy in the forex markets. So before I dive into the technical aspects of what I’m seeing in our six pairs I want to lead with a disclaimer: If you’re new to trading forex, it might not be a bad idea to sit out the week entirely and just observe. Here’s a fantastic recap of five huge events that are on the docket for this coming week. Read it!

Now that that’s over, let’s look at our trade tracker to start the week:

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The trade tracker is finally starting to show some life! And this is why I’m going to reiterate why this coming week can be so dangerous for novice traders. There are some clear trends starting to develop, which makes it tempting to hop on the train and ride them to profit. But with the extremely high fundamental risk this week, these trends can be reversed, whipsawed, and everything in between. So please, be careful out there!

Now let’s take a look at each pair: (more…)

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