A couple days ago I said EURUSD was like watching paint dry. Not anymore!
It’s amazing how fast things can change in the FX markets. The Euro surged yesterday and kept right on trucking overnight until…
Until it didn’t.
But something crept up in me when the Euro pushed up near 1.1860… it just didn’t feel “right”. It’s hard to explain but at that moment I knew I wanted to sell the Euro. The markets were dropping and my $NFLX position was losing ground. I decided to get out, trying to get out initially at $195.50, then $195.00, then $194.50… it kept getting away from my limit sell orders. Finally I was able to get out at $194.00.
I took a lose there but was only holding 200 shares, so just under $300. Not bad.
By the time I had the extra margin, EURUSD was trading down to 1.1825 and looking heavy. I was watching the lower timeframes and it seemed like the right time to pull the trigger. So I sold pretty heavily.
What the charts are saying
The nearest support right now is 1.1786. That’s where we were basing yesterday after the surge and launched higher during the overnight session. You can see the level here on the 15-minute chart:
Cracking through that opens the door lower, obviously. I’d expect at least a test of the 200-bar SMA which is currently 1.1756 and moving higher. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see us trade below that. Again, the most interesting level to me right now is the low 1.17’s where the 4-hour 200-bar SMA comes in along with our broken trend line:
If the pair trades down to that zone, what happens there will determine the next leg in the major trend in my opinion. If it’s able to find support, we’ll likely head higher. But if not, it’s time to get on the bear train again.
Reflecting on my mistakes
I’d been nursing some Euro longs for a few days, and while I made a nice 100+ pips profit on the trade I wish I’d caught more of this move higher. But I’m really not upset about that. My real mistake was selling yesterday, thinking the rally had gone too far too fast. I didn’t wait for an appropriate sell signal and that was a mistake on my part.
I’m making up for it today though, and I’m hoping we still see some downside pressure. I’ve been having a great month, and I’d love to keep things going. I’m hoping by writing each day it will help me better clarify my thoughts and trade better.